With three Group races in Italy and two Grade 1’s in France, Sunday looks a reasonable day for a bet taster. So lets move on and see what we can find.
PREMIO CARLO D´ALESSIO (Group 3) (4yo+) (Turf) 1m 4f
The Botti family have dominated this race over the past five years landing it on four occasions, this year Stefan has four entries in the race, and its like a typical O’Brien equivalent of Italy when we see three or four runners in one pattern race. So with issues of this nature it might be better to give the run down individually.
Trainer Bruno Grizetti won this race back in 2010 who once trained Fanoulpifer to two at career successes at three and four, he changed stables last spring to now Stefan Botti who has won three of the past four renewals. Since joining the record breaking yard he has had been given two chances at this level a long way down the field, the two wins you will see on the form is not reflected in the racing post, but these were over 1500m, which to you and I is just over seven and a half furlongs.
He seems to thrive through the mud which saw him win last year under the guidance of Grizzeti over ten furlongs at San Siro. The sire was an heavy ground winner in his younger days, but came on over middle distances on firmer ground. Cristian Demuro jumps up again but we have to take it on trust he can get this trip in the conditions.
Strange registration details here, Stefan Botti is down as the trainer of Keshiro, but in fact he is trained by Endo Botti, confused yet, let me know when you get it and let me know please, maybe they share the ownership. According to the records he recently changed hands from Stefano to Edno, but Edno will lose the horse after this race as it changes hands once more back to Stefano, phew did you get that explanation.
Keshiro has got Capannelle experience which reads 2142, two of them defeats have come on heavy ground, in-fact his form on heavy in general reads 234, so on that merit he does look opposable, it is also interesting that Demuro has elected to ride Fanoulpifer over Keshiro, and I am guessing this is due to the this afternoons conditions.
SHOCKING BLU :
Shocking Blu has already beaten Keshiro this year in the Listed Regione Toscana at Pisa, with 4lb between the pair, Keshiro should be reversing the form at the weights, and this is unknown territory for Shocking Blu who will tackle the heavy conditions for the first time, but looking at his standing results, all of his races have come on faster ground.
His last run came in the Group 3 Premio Ambrosiano over 10f, and he weakened very tamely in the race when the 5/6f to land the race. He has been frustrating to follow and would expect maybe he is one of the pace makers in the race.
TIME CHANT :
Probably the likely one of the quartet that will be on the premises for Stafano Botti this afternoon. With two runs here at Capannelle last year which put on his resume a good third in the Italian Derby. His only run on heavy ground was last time out when only managing sixth of eight in the Group 1 Gran Premio Del Jockey Club and this would give me great concerns that he will not get the trip again under these conditions.
So looking over the quartet of Stefano Botti’s, you would like to feel that all four are definitely opposable especially in the conditions, and this makes me want to side with the Durpaire trained DIRGAM, who was disappointing on his seasons re-appearance when only managing last of five runners in what looked an average Listed contest.
What is in his favour this time around is the ground, already a heavy ground win as a three year old, he had two wins last year in bottomless ground, and I would now expect to see him in better light now the ground has turned in his favour.
DIRGAM : £50 Win @ evens
DERBY SISAL MATCHPOINT (Group 2) (3yo Colts & Fillies) (Turf) 1m 3f
Stefano Botti has 66% of the runners in this race, Biz Heart, Dee Dee D’Or and Full Drago all having a from line through their own encounters, out of these three I would have to be swinging towards Biz Heart. Andrea Atzeni comes in for the ride for the second time after finishing runner up to Full Drago in the Conditions San Giusppe going behind by a nose.
Big Heart was the 2/5f that day, and having to concede 8lb to the winner and now meet off level terms you would of thought he would be oozing more class this time around. One of interest from the yard is Presley, winner on debut at San Siro he should come on a lot more being by Listed Capannelle winning sire Gladiatorus which came on heavy ground.
Another is FREEDOM BEEL and will be the selection for the race, i was quite taken the way he won his Listed race over just shy of course and distance, the form line through Presley is a solid one, with Presley beating Vettori Rules by under two lengths and Freedom Beel beating the same horse by further, i would like to think there is more to come from the son of Pour Moi and I give him a cracking chance.
I suppose i cannot over look the fact that Dermot Weld has sent over True Solitaire, his form on soft to heavy is pretty noticeable, he made hard work in the 1000 guineas trial when finishing third to Black Sea and Stenographer. Black Sea has already disappointed in the Dante last week tailing off, but it is interesting that the Irish trainer decided to not go the 1000 guineas route at the Curragh this afternoon.
FREEDOM BEEL : £10 each Way @ 10/1