TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (Group 1) 1m
The Irish equivalent of the guineas has arrived, with the 2000 this afternoon and the 1000 on the Sabbath we should be seeing were we are at in hindsight of maybe some three year old fillies and colts to follow for the summer. Looking over the 2000, and reading a tweet this morning about thus race looks a poor renewal and the favourite should really be taking this contest, I would have to seriously concur with the tweeter.
You will not be struggling this time around for a decent price of the Newmarket flop of Air Force Blue who is one of my horses to follow this season. There were questions into has he really made a transition, a late foal and a prolific juvenile, as we have seen in the past how they do not make a positive passover. The 2000 at Newmarket was too wrong to be true, going off as short as 4/5 he totally fluffed his lines and never turned up tailing off.
Now was he not ready, has their been interruptions into bringing him on for this years campaign, unless you work at AOB’s then we are just guessing. Will he thrive into a useful three year old, Air Force Blue is by War Front, who never got his career off the ground until he was four, but out of seven career starts he only landed the Group 2 Vanderbilt Hcp.
I have read many a time that people seem to think War Front progenies come on as they age, and relevantly speaking this is a known fact I would like to say his most successful off spring was Declaration of War who only won the Group 3 Diomed Stakes as a three year old and did not come on until kept in training at four where he landed the Queen Anne Stakes and the Juddmonte International Stakes. Does the 3/1 in the market spring up value, to be fair no, he looked vulnerable on his first run, and once more I am willing to take him on even though he runs without any additional headgear or restraint.
Air Vice Marshall also represents Ballydoyle, he was punted off the boards in the Guineas, and with money down he looked to be travelling well until hitting the rising ground over the final furlong, but fourth in a classic was a big improvement, but it is the War Front factor, I cannot have the pedigree to win this race and if they keep him in training when turning four, then maybe we would have something more positive to write about.
Ballydoyle also have Bravery & SHOGUN on the guineas resume, and it is the latter that caught my eye last time out when staying on powerfully under the Ryan Moore drive to snatch second spot in the Derrinstown Derby trial stakes at Leopardstown. I do not think he would have to be anything special to be involved here. being by Fastnet Rock who tend to need a couple of runs in a season, this will be his third run of the new campaign, he is showing signs of improving and coming on strength by strength, 33/1 with a dead eight still declared has to be a bet for me.
Galileo Gold winner of this years first classic the 2000 guineas has been in and out of the press ever since he landed the guineas, will they send him the Derby route or leave him at a mile. Even though he has Galileo in his genes, the factor for me he is sired by a prolific miler in Paco Boy and the pedigree buffs have spoken that the Derby index would not play into his strengths, but that is what they said about New Approach. He is short enough at 7/4 to gain his second classic of the season, for me what is in the field, both of the War Front off springs should be on the premises and you cannot overrule Ballydoyle’s.
For me Paco Boy was run into the ground and should not of been raced after his Queen Anne defeat to the hands of the wonder mare Goldikova. Paco Boy thrived as a three year old winning five of his seven starts, which included a disqualification against Goldikova.So it is with every chance Galileo Gold has a lot more to come this season. I am not going to take him on as I feel he looks the likely winner for trainer Hugo Palmer, I am going to stick at a heavy price here, hoping Shogun can improve on his early promise this year.
SHOGUN : £10 each way @ 33/1