Crabbies’s Grand National Chase (Grade 3)

Please ensure who is offering the best place market on the high street, Corals are paying five places, Ladbrokes five places, Betvictor six places, with the rest of the establishments paying the first five. So please look around for value, some firms on-line are offering best odds guaranteed, as are some in shop like Ladbrokes between 11am and 1pm, so nick some value where possible, do not over stake especially in this particular race, remember if your going to select four or five horses you need to pick a price that is first going to cover your out lay stake in this case lets say for arguments sake twenty five quid.

Most of the punters will all know by now that this is a race of sticking a pin in and getting it hopefully right, its a total lottery, you would probably have a higher percentage of winning two numbers on the Irish Lottery tonight, regardless with value on the books this is a race that is worth betting each way, but do not forget this doubles your stake plan so take that in to account.

On to the race, and I have set aside thirty pound for this race, a staking plan that I am very comfortable with, so I will select four horses at five pound each, and will have one placed bet each way on my top outsider. So Lets get this off the ground, ‘MANY CLOUDS‘ is one of my win bets, only 1lb higher than when winning this in 2015, his preparation for the race has been spot on. His form leading into this race last year read 1116 with his unplaced run coming  in the Grade 1 Cheltenham Gold Cup. This year his form has be around the same, without the strength of as many wins his form has read 221, his two defeats have come at the hands of Don Poli in the Betfred Chase and Smad Place in the Cotswold Chase.

Now Smad Place I really fancied for this and shame he will not be participating, they both went a serious gallop in the Cheltenham Cotswold, with Smad Place running out a twelve length winner that day when in receipt of 4lb, Many Clouds was sharpened up when he was announced that he would not compete at Prestbury Park and headed to Kelso for the Premier Chase which he slaughtered his field with some prolific jumping, back in second was Unioniste who was coming off the back of winning the Ivan Straker at Kelso.

Oliver Sherwood has quoted that he is in good nick, and Leighton Aspell is looking to make history to become the first jockey to win the race three consecutive years, and Many Clouds to become the first since Red Rum to go back to back wins in the race, a tall order in-deed to over come, but if he jumps there is no reason why he cannot win again, regardless he should be on the premises.

My second win bet comes in the likes of Neil Mullholland’s ‘THE DRUIDS NEPHEW‘ he was travelling well within himself last year when falling five out, would he of gone close if and buts did not come into the equation. He had a stone in hand over Many Clouds that day and comes here 5lb higher and gets only 10lb this time around from Many Clouds.His form leading into this shows 662, he is another that over looked Cheltenham for this and the fact he is a front rank runner which is a good attribute in this race, he should be right up there within the leading pack along with Many Clouds. His second positional run last time out was behind another that deserves a mention in the race ‘THE LAST SAMURI’.

This is my third win bet, beating The Druids Nephew last time out in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster put him seriously into the mix. Another up with the pace runner, he put the race to bed quickly to record a ten length win at Doncaster, his form leading into the race is 311 and comes into the race without a penalty. With a feathered weight and the booking of once more David Bass who is 2-2 with him since taking over from Wilson Renwick.

My concerns only is he has on two occasions put in a few short jumps in which has cost him twice in his career, but he has been consistent since not finishing out of the top three since March last year and off 10st 8lb a good weight for this race over the years which has returned eight winners and over one hundred placed. My final win bet comes in the shape of ‘MORNING ASSEMBLY‘. He gets the services of a jockey I admire for the big occasions in Davy Russell, missing all of the 2015 campaign due to injury; he bounced back when runner up to Bridget’s Pet at Fairyhouse over two mile five, he had every chance under today’s pilot who could not go pass the gutsy winner, going down by a head when conceding over a stone to the winner.

He followed up with another runner’s up spot when behind Smashing who that day was ridden by Davy Russell, he went down by eleven lengths in bottomless ground and was not suited by the trip at all. Was last seen at the Cheltenham festival last year when he got a live chance of winning until hitting three out and weakened out of it finishing fourth. That day he had Kruzhlinen behind by one length who also hit the last, but looked held, second that day was Holywell of Jonjo O’Neills nine lengths ahead, they meet off the same weights, and even though he has been napped by a few pundits who finished a good runner up in the Ultima at Cheltenham this year, I am convinced that we have not seen the best of Morning Assembly’s ability yet.

On to my outsider’s chance for the race, and a whopping price he is indeed, ‘LE REVE‘ represents Lucy Wadham and I feel he has a nice profile for this race. Now his form reads coming into this 2615 with his sole win of 2016 came at Sandown in the Betfred Masters Handicap Chase when beating Pete the Feat by two and a quarter lengths. He has been held by Kruzhlinin this year at Kempton, but he was very out paced coming in the final quarter of the race, his fifth to Theatre Guide who probably ran way above his rate at Kempton last time when landing the Betbright Chase. Le Reve if there on the last circuit has staying power, and this step up in trip I feel he will get every yard of the encounter.

SELECTIONS

MANY CLOUDS : £5 Win @ 9/1 (BOG)

THE DRUIDS NEPHEW : £5 WIN @ 16/1

THE LAST SAMURI : £5 Win @ 12/1

MORNING ASSEMBLY : £5 WIN @ 25/1

EACH WAY CLAIM

LE REVE : £5 each Way @ 66/1

 

 

 

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